Something unusual is happening in American politics: data centers are deciding elections.
In Pennsylvania’s competitive 7th and 8th congressional districts, Republican incumbents Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan — both of whom flipped Democratic seats in 2024 — are now fighting to hold onto them. The reason isn’t inflation or immigration. It’s electricity bills. Pennsylvania ratepayers saw an 18.9% jump in electric rates in 2025, and they paid $492 million that year for data center transmission infrastructure alone. Both districts are now rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
Pennsylvania isn’t alone. Across at least six battleground states — including Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Texas, and California — the AI data center boom has become what NPR calls a midterm “tipping point.”
The Numbers Behind the Anger
Data centers now account for half of all new U.S. electricity demand, up from a small fraction just a few years ago. U.S. data center electricity consumption has grown from about 1.9% of the national total in 2018 to roughly 4.4% today, and projections say it could hit 12% by 2028.
That growth shows up directly on utility bills. Rate increases last year hit 26.3% in Washington D.C., 18.9% in Pennsylvania, and 16.3% in Rhode Island. Not all of that is data centers — grid upgrades and fuel costs play a role — but the timing is hard to ignore. Duke Energy just announced a record $103 billion five-year spending plan to keep up with demand. North Carolina’s governor publicly criticized the utility for seeking a 15% rate hike plus $800 million in fuel costs, arguing it shifts costs from large industrial users “onto the backs of regular people.”
Meanwhile, a new Carnegie Mellon study calculated that data centers caused $25 billion in hidden health and environmental damage to the U.S. economy in 2025. That includes air pollution from electricity generation — PM2.5 particulate matter linked to lung disease and premature death. Virginia and Texas together account for about 30% of those costs. The study projects environmental damages could rise another 85% in the near term.
Both Parties Have a Problem
What makes data centers unusual as a political issue is that it cuts across partisan lines. According to the Washington Post, roughly 55% of elected officials who have spoken out against data centers are Republicans.
That’s not a typo. Rural conservatives worried about water tables, noise, and lost farmland are often more vocal than urban progressives on this issue. Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, told CNBC the bipartisan backlash has “complicated an already difficult environment for Republicans in competitive districts.”
Democrats who focused on household energy costs swept key elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and Georgia late last year. The party has noticed: energy affordability is becoming a core midterm message, and data centers give it a corporate villain.
Republicans face a tougher bind. Many supported the tax incentives and fast-track permitting that brought data centers to their districts. Now constituents want to know why their bills went up 20% so that Meta and Amazon could get discounted power.
Local Elections Are the Leading Indicator
Before data centers became a congressional issue, they were already reshaping local politics. In Festus, Missouri, voters replaced half their city council this spring over a data center proposal. In Warrenton, Virginia, voters removed every council member who supported an Amazon facility — over 500 residents packed the hearings. In San Marcos, Texas, a $1.5 billion hyperscale campus was halted through direct political action.
Opposition groups have grown to over 200 organizations across 40-plus states. They blocked $156 billion in projects in 2025 — 48 projects delayed or killed, up from 16 the year before. Twenty-six projects were canceled in December and January alone, compared to just one in October.
The legislative response is accelerating, too. Since we last covered this issue, Maine’s statewide moratorium has taken effect, and similar bills are moving in at least 12 states. But the real shift is from policy to electoral strategy: candidates are running on this.
The Grid Can’t Keep Up Anyway
Even without political opposition, the math is getting difficult. Global data center electricity consumption is projected to reach 1,000 TWh by the end of 2026 — equivalent to Japan’s entire annual electricity usage. Up to 11 GW of planned data center capacity remains stuck in the announcement phase because grid connections can’t be secured.
AEP Ohio’s experience is telling. After receiving interconnection requests totaling 30 GW — far beyond grid capacity — the utility imposed a moratorium on new data center connections. After new tariff rules requiring data centers to pay for 85% of their subscribed capacity regardless of actual use, the queue dropped from 30 GW to 13 GW overnight. It turns out demand looks very different when companies have to pay the real cost.
Hyperscalers are responding by trying to bypass the grid entirely, building on-site power generation — essentially private power plants. That solves the grid problem but raises new questions about emissions, water use, and local regulation that haven’t been answered yet.
What This Means
AI infrastructure has gone from a planning commission debate to a kitchen table issue in less than two years. When voters connect their 20% electricity rate increase to the construction cranes they see on the highway, the political consequence is immediate and bipartisan.
This doesn’t mean data centers will stop being built. But the era of fast-tracked permits, generous tax breaks, and minimal community input is ending. The industry’s own behavior — overpromising jobs, underreporting water use, lobbying for rate structures that shift costs to residential customers — created this backlash.
The midterms will be the first national test of whether “AI infrastructure” is a winning or losing message for incumbents. Early indicators — from Pennsylvania polling to Missouri city council races — suggest that politicians who are seen as prioritizing tech companies over ratepayers are in trouble, regardless of party.
What You Can Do
- Check your utility bills. If you’ve seen unusual increases, look for rate filings that mention data center infrastructure. Many states require public comment periods.
- Look up your congressional candidates’ positions. The Brookings Institution has tracked which representatives voted for data center tax incentives or fast-track permitting.
- Attend local hearings. The Warrenton and Festus stories show that turnout at local government meetings directly shapes outcomes.
- Ask the hard questions. When a developer promises jobs and tax revenue: How many permanent jobs? What happens to electricity rates? How many gallons of water per day? Is there a Community Benefit Agreement with binding limits?
The people building data centers spent billions lobbying for favorable treatment. The people paying the bills are just now showing up at the ballot box. That’s the story of the 2026 midterms.